Politico

Control of the House remains on a knife’s edge. Here’s how it could break.

“Election Week” is coming to a close with control of the House still up for grabs.

As of Saturday afternoon, 25 congressional races remain unresolved. That number includes the 11 races POLITICO has rated as truly undecided, with neither party a significant favorite to win once all the votes are tallied.

Democrats have been narrowing the gap in many of those races over the past 24 hours. On Friday, The Associated Press called seven new congressional races — all for Democrats.

The balance of power in the House currently stands at 211 Republicans and 199 Democrats — but, functionally, it’s more closely divided. The list of uncalled races includes two California contests where both general-election candidates are Democrats. And allocating the dozen races where one party is significantly favored — but where The AP hasn’t made a call — adds eight seats to the Democratic Party’s tally, and four races to Republicans’.

That would put Republicans at 215 seats, just three seats away from the majority, while Democrats would be nine seats short. But with 11 seats in doubt — six with Republicans leading, and five where Democrats are ahead — both parties still have a shot, though the GOP is still favored.

Here is a district-by-district breakdown of the uncalled races as of Saturday afternoon, and what could happen next:

UP-FOR-GRAB RACES — 11 TOTAL, WITH GOP LEADING 6-5

Arizona-01 (Pre-Nov. 8 POLITICO Election Forecast“,”link”:{“target”:”NEW”,”attributes”:[],”url”:”https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/”,”_id”:”00000184-6e15-d4e7-afdd-fe7719a40002″,”_type”:”33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df”},”_id”:”00000184-6e15-d4e7-afdd-fe7719a40003″,”_type”:”02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266″}”>POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Republican): GOP Rep. David Schweikert is trailing Democrat Jevin Hodge by 4,000 votes. Maricopa County, which includes the entire district, is set to release more votes later Saturday, which could help Schweikert given the state’s trend toward a “red shift” later in the count.

Arizona-06 (Lean Republican): Republican Juan Ciscomani holds only a narrow lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel — about 2,900 votes — in a race that has narrowed significantly since Election Day. It’s not clear whether the remaining votes in Pima County (Tucson) will help Engel close the gap completely.

California-13 (Lean Republican): This one looks like a nail-biter: Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes as of Saturday afternoon, with only 61 percent of the ballots tallied, according to The Associated Press.

California-22 (Toss Up): Is it déjà vu for Rep. David Valadao? The California Republican was so far ahead of his Democratic opponent on election night in 2018 that The AP declared him the winner — only to retract the call when Valadao fell behind weeks later. This time, Valadao (who eventually returned to Congress after winning in 2020) leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5 points, but that’s already down from 8 points on Tuesday night.

California-41 (Lean Republican): GOP Rep. Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by about 2,100 votes in the Inland Empire, but it’s not clear how the late-counted ballots will break.

California-47 (Lean Democratic): Democratic Rep. Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh by 2 percentage points, as late-arriving ballots in Orange County have helped extend what was an extremely narrow lead on Election Day.

California-49 (Toss Up): Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has opened up a 4-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott.

Colorado-03 (Likely Republican): GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is up by about 1,100 votes over Democrat Adam Frisch. Frisch needs to eat into Boebert’s advantage in the final ballots to have a shot to surpass her in the likely recount, which will occur if the two candidates finish within half a percentage point of each other (Boebert currently leads by 0.4 points).

New York-22 (Toss Up): Republican Brandon Williams is nearly 4,000 votes ahead of Democrat Francis Conole, who is hoping that still-to-be-counted absentee ballots in Syracuse are enough to push him over the top.

Oregon-06 (Toss Up): Democrat Andrea Salinas is 4,000 votes ahead of Republican Mike Erickson, with 79 percent of precincts reporting.

Washington-03 (Lean Republican): Joe Kent, the Donald Trump-endorsed candidate who knocked out GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary back in August, is at risk of losing the seat for Republicans. Kent trails Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by around 5,000 votes, but just 70 percent of the ballots are counted.

DEMOCRATIC-FAVORED RACES — 10 TOTAL, WITH DEMS LEADING ALL 10)

Alaska-At-Large (Lean Democratic): Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola will enter the Nov. 23 ranked-choice tabulation as the favorite to beat former Gov. Sarah Palin, as she did in the August special election.

California-06 (Likely Democratic): Democratic Rep. Ami Bera has a 12-point lead over his GOP challenger in a race that only remains uncalled because The AP estimates only around half the votes have been tallied.

California-09 (Lean Democratic): Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is ahead of Republican Tom Patti by 13 points, but less than half the estimated vote is in, according to The AP.

California-15 (Solid Democratic): This Bay Area open seat is assured of staying blue, since both general-election candidates are Democrats. San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa has conceded defeat to state Assembly Speaker Pro Tem Kevin Mullin, but The AP has yet to declare Mullin the winner.

California-21 (Solid Democratic): Democratic Rep. Jim Costa leads his GOP challenger by 9 points, with about three-quarters of the estimated vote counted.

California-26 (Lean Democratic): This Ventura County seat was contested between the parties in the closing weeks of the election, but Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley has a 9-point lead over Republican Matt Jacobs.

California-34 (Solid Democratic): Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez is facing a closer-than-expected race against his opponent, David Kim. But both men are Democrats.

California-35 (Solid Democratic): Democratic Rep. Norma Torres is 12 points ahead of her GOP opponent in her Inland Empire district, but only 57 percent of the vote is in, according to The AP.

Colorado-08 (Lean Republican): Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer conceded defeat this week to Democrat Yadira Caraveo, who leads by around 1,700 votes. The AP still has not called the race.

Maine-02 (Toss Up): Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is at 48.2 percent in the latest vote count, more than 3 points ahead for former GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin. Golden is the heavy favorite going into next week’s ranked-choice tabulation.

REPUBLICAN-FAVORED RACES — 4 TOTAL, WITH GOP LEADING 4-0

California-03 (Likely Republican): State Assemblymember Kevin Kiley is 6 points ahead of Democrat Kermit Jones, who needs the remaining 47 percent of ballots to break heavily in his favor to pull off the upset.

California-27 (Lean Republican): GOP Rep. Mike Garcia’s 12-point lead over Democrat Christy Smith, whom Garcia has already defeated twice, is likely insurmountable.

California-45 (Lean Republican): GOP Rep. Michelle Steel leads Democrat Jay Chen by 6 points, and it’s not clear the remaining Orange County ballots will be enough for Chen to close the gap.

Oregon-05 (Lean Republican): Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer has a 2-point lead over Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, with an estimated 87 percent of the ballots counted. The Portland Oregonian has called the race for Chavez-DeRemer, though McLeod Skinner hasn’t conceded.

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