More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched party affiliations to become Republicans over the last year, reversing Democratic gains that helped the Left overcome former President Donald Trump and gain control of Congress in 2020.
Roughly 1.7 million voters have changed their voter affiliation since President Joe Biden took office, with about two-thirds of those crossing over to the Republican Party. Overall, 1 million switched to the GOP compared to just 630,000 who registered as Democrats, according to voter registration data analyzed by the Associated Press.
The shift occurred in almost every region of the country, but it was most common in the suburbs as several well-educated swing voters who voted against Trump in 2020 appear to be warming up to the GOP once again. This could spell trouble for Democrats, who relied on gains from party-switching during the Trump administration to gain control of the House in 2018 and then the Senate and White House in 2020.
Party-switching is not entirely uncommon, and it’s likely that several of the newly declared Republicans are Democratic voters who crossed party lines to vote in GOP primaries and are poised to switch back before the November election. However, it shows a sharp increase from party-switching numbers in previous election cycles where Democrats enjoyed slight edges over Republicans.
The upswing in GOP voters does not ensure success for the party in the midterm elections when Republicans hope to seize control of Congress. However, it does give the party a slight advantage as it continues to fire at Democrats for their perceived failures at addressing inflation, rising gas prices, and the baby formula shortage.
However, Democrats hope to capitalize on the Supreme Court’s recent decision overturning Roe v. Wade to gain momentum with voters ahead of the November elections. The court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization on Friday reversed the landmark case that legalized abortion nationwide and handed the decision back to the states.
The Associated Press analyzed data provided by L2, a political data firm, which suggested almost 1.7 million voters switched party affiliations in 42 states over the last 12 months. L2 gathered this data by combining state voter records and statistical modeling.